World Health Organization. Global tuberculosis report2017[R/OL].(2018-01-03)[2018-07-16]http://www.who.int/tb/publications/ global_report/en.<br />
[2]
ABAJOBIR A A,ABBAFATI C,ABBAS K M,et al.Global,regional,and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death,1980 2016:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016[J]. Lancet,2015,390(10100):1151.<br />
YU L,ZHOU L,TAN L,et al.Application of a new hybrid model with seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)and nonlinear auto-regressive neural network(NARNN)in forecasting incidence cases of HFMD in Shenzhen,China[J]. PLoS One,2014;9(6):e98241.<br />
[5]
WANG T,ZHOU Y,WANG L,et al.Using autoregressive integrated moving average model to predict the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Zibo,China,2004-2014[J]. Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases,2015,69(4):279-284.<br />
KORTHALS A H,KREMER K,ERKENS C,et al.Tuberculosis seasonality in the Netherlands differs between natives and non-natives:a role for vitamin D deficiency?[J]. International Journal of Tuberculosis & Lung Disease,2012,16(5):639.<br />
[8]
WAH W,DAS S,EARNEST A,et al.Time series analysis of demographic and temporal trends of tuberculosis in Singapore[J]. Bmc Public Health,2014,14(1):1121.<br />
[9]
BRAS A L,GOMES D,FILIPE P A,et al.Trends,seasonality and forecasts of pulmonary tuberculosis in Portugal[J]. International Journal of Tuberculosis & Lung Disease,2014,18(10):1202-1210.<br />
[10]
BOX G E P,JENKINS G M. Time series analysis:forecasting and control[J]. Journal of Time,2010,31(4):303-303.<br />
[11]
SPECHT D F.A general regression neural network[J]. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks,2002,2(6):568-576.<br />
AUDA F.Seasonality of tuberculosis[J]. Journal of Global Infectious Diseases,2011,3(1):46-55.<br />
[15]
WILLIS M D,WINSTON C A,HEILIG C M,et al. Seasonality of tuberculosis in the United States,1993-2008[J]. Clin Infect Dis,2012(54):1553-1560.<br />
[16]
MOOSAZADEH M,KHANJANI N,BAHRAMPOUR A .Seasonality and temporal variations of tuberculosis in the north of Iran[J]. Tanaffos,2013,12(4):35.<br />
[17]
WEI W,JIANG J,LIANG H,et al.Application of a combined model with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and generalized regression neural network(GRNN)in forecasting hepatitis incidence in Heng County,China[J]. PLoS One,2016,11(6):e0156768.<br />
[18]
ZHANG G,HUANG S,DUAN Q,et al.Application of a hybrid model for predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in Hubei,China[J]. PLoS One,2013,8(11):e80969.<br />
