Trend in disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma among middle-aged and elderly population in China from 1994 to 2023
WU Shuang1, WANG Zhe1, LI Dongyang1, QIAO Jian1, MU Lan2
1. General Hospital of Northern Theater Command of Chinese People's Liberation Army, Shenyang, Liaoning 110000, China; 2. The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, Liaoning 121001, China
Abstract：Objective To analyze the trend in disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma-related among middle-aged and elderly population in China from 1994 to 2023, so as to provide evidence for formulating targeted screening and intervention strategies. Methods Data on prevalent cases, standardized prevalence, incident cases, standardized incidence, death cases, standardized mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and standardized DALY rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma among the population aged ≥45?years in China were collected through the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to evaluate the trend in disease burden. A four-factor decomposition method was used to estimate the contributions of population size, age structure, prevalence variation and disease severity to the alterations in death cases and DALY caused by nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Results The standardized prevalence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma among Chinese middle-aged and elderly population rose from 46.54/105 in 1994 to 59.81/105 in 2023, presenting an upward trend (AAPC=0.760%, 95%CI: 0.561%-0.973%). The standardized incidence, standardized mortality and standardized DALY rate decreased from 13.66/105, 10.90/105 and 318.79/105 to 10.75/105, 3.87/105 and 111.20/105, respectively, with declining trends (AAPC=-0.757%, 95%CI: -0.882% to -0.620%; AAPC=-3.554%, 95%CI: -3.681% to -3.419%; AAPC=-3.444%, 95%CI: -3.564% to -3.307%). In 2023, the standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality and DALY rate among males reached 86.96/105, 15.84/105, 5.88/105 and 172.49/105, which were higher than 33.45/105, 5.82/105, 1.92/105 and 51.66/105 in females. Decomposition analysis indicated that expanded population scale, population ageing and prevalence change exerted favourable effects on the reduction of death cases and DALY caused by nasopharyngeal carcinoma, whereas disease severity produced an offsetting adverse effect. Conclusions The overall disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma among middle-aged and elderly population in China declined from 1994 to 2023, yet males suffered from a comparatively heavy burden. The beneficial impacts from population expansion, population ageing and prevalence change on burden reduction were partially counteracted by disease severity.
吴爽, 王哲, 李冬阳, 乔健, 穆兰. 1994—2023年中国中老年人鼻咽癌疾病负担趋势分析[J]. 预防医学, 2026, 38(8): 790-793.
WU Shuang, WANG Zhe, LI Dongyang, QIAO Jian, MU Lan. Trend in disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma among middle-aged and elderly population in China from 1994 to 2023. Preventive Medicine, 2026, 38(8): 790-793.
[1] Forae G D,Nwafor C C.Pattern of occurrence of primary head and neck cancers presenting in Benin City,Southern Nigeria[J].Saudi J Health Sci,2017,6(1):52-56. [2] Marin M A,Closca R M,Marin A,et al.Clinical,epidemiological,morphological,and immunohistochemical aspects of nasopharyngeal carcinoma-4-year retrospective study in the western part of Romania[J/OL].Diagnostics(Basel),2024,14(7)[2026-07-28].http://doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics14070722. [3] 梁锌,杨剑,高婷,等.中国鼻咽癌流行概况[J].中国肿瘤,2016,25(11):835-840. [4] Chen B J,Zhan Z W,Fang W N,et al.Long-term trends and future projections of larynx cancer burden in China:a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2030 using GBD data[J/OL].Sci Rep,2024,14[2026-07-28].http://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-77797-6. [5] Zhou T J,Wang X T,Zhu Q C,et al.Global trends and risk factors of laryngeal cancer:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study(1990-2021)[J/OL].BMC Cancer,2025,25(1)[2026-07-28].http://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-025-13700-4. [6] Liu X,Gao X L,Liang X H,et al.The etiologic spectrum of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma in young patients[J].Oncotarget,2016,7(40):66226-66238. [7] Chang A Y,Skirbekk V F,Tyrovolas S,et al.Measuring population ageing:an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017[J].Lancet Public Heal,2019,4(3):159-167. [8] Wu B,Li Y,Shi B G,et al.Temporal trends of breast cancer burden in the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2044:Implications from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019[J].J Adv Res,2024,59:189-199. [9] Liu N,Yang D W,Wu Y X,et al.Burden,trends,and risk factors for breast cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions until 2034:an up-to-date overview and comparison with those in Japan and South Korea[J/OL].BMC Cancer,2022,22(1)[2026-07-28].http://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-022-09923-4. [10] 廖红明,何本超,陈绪清,等.2010—2021年中国和全球喉癌发病与死亡变化趋势:基于全球疾病负担数据库[J].中国耳鼻咽喉头颈外科,2025,32(10):624-629. [11] Stevens G A,Alkema L,Black R E,et al.Guidelines for accurate and transparent health estimates reporting:the GATHER statement[J].Lancet,2016,388(10062):19-23. [12] 纪雪梅,孙凌,何忠时,等.吸烟饮酒作为低发区鼻咽癌致病因素的分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2010,14(5):393-396. [13] 梁爱芬,何韶坚,华仙丽,等.东莞市健康体检人群EB病毒隐性感染调查[J].预防医学,2019,31(2):180-182. [14] 连仕锋,季明芳,吴标华,等.EB病毒血清学筛查鼻咽癌高、中危人群的随访研究[J].中华预防医学杂志,2015,49(1):26-30.
