|
|
|
| Epidemiological characteristics and excess incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Jiaxing City from 2015 to 2024 |
| LI Rui, FU Xiaofei, WANG Yuanhang, LIU Yang
|
| Jiaxing Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Jiaxing Institute of Public Health Supervision),Jiaxing, Zhejiang 314050, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Objective To analyze the epidemic periods and excess cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Jiaxing City, Zhejiang Province from 2015 to 2024, so as to provide evidence for optimizing prevention and control strategies for HFMD. Methods Data on HFMD cases in Jiaxing City from 2015 to 2024 were collected through the Infectious Disease Reporting Information System of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Descriptive analyze demographic and temporal distributions of HFMD. The adjusted Serfling regression model was constructed based on the weekly number of HFMD cases reported in Jiaxing City from 2015 to 2024 to estimate the baseline and epidemic threshold of HFMD incidence. An epidemic period was defined as a period during which the actual number of cases exceeded the epidemic threshold for more than 2 consecutive weeks, with an interval of no more than 1 week between epidemic periods. Excess cases were defined as the difference between the reported number of cases and the baseline number of cases during the epidemic periods. Results A total of 91 859 HFMD cases were reported in Jiaxing City from 2015 to 2024, with an average annual reported incidence of 183.90/105. There were 54 064 male cases (58.86%) and 37 795 female cases (41.14%). The majority of cases were aged 0-<5 years and scattered-living children, with 71 505 cases (77.84%) and 47 387 cases (51.59%). The temporal distribution of HFMD presented a bimodal pattern, with two peaks from May to July and September to November, with 44 578 cases (48.53%) and 23 434 cases (25.51%), respectively. After excluding data of 2017 (promotional vaccination of inactivated enterovirus 71 vaccine) and 2020-2022 (COVID-19 prevention and control), the adjusted Serfling regression model achieved good fitting performance (R2=0.740). Six epidemic periods were identified from 2015 to 2024, including June 2016, May to July and September to October 2018, June to August and September to October 2023, and June to July 2024, with a cumulative epidemic duration of 28 weeks, and 16 772 excess cases accumulated in these periods. Conclusions HFMD in Jiaxing City showed a bimodal temporal distribution from 2015 to 2024, with high incidence among children aged 0-<5 years and scattered-living children. Six epidemic periods were identified by the adjusted Serfling regression model. Early warning should be strengthened for spring and summer peaks and high-risk populations.
|
|
Received: 19 May 2026
Revised: 24 July 2026
Published: 22 September 2026
|
|
|
|
|
|
[1] 李兰娟. 传染病学[M].10版.北京:人民卫生出版社,2024.
[2] 《手足口病诊疗指南(2018版)》编写专家委员会.手足口病诊疗指南(2018年版)[J].中华传染病杂志,2018,36(5):257-263.
[3] 王颖. 手足口病聚集性疫情的病原学特征及流行病学调查[J].医学信息,2022,35(7):162-164.
[4] 卢文海,宋丽霞,陈霓璇,等.运用调整Serfling回归模型估计深圳市2015—2024年手足口病超额发病数[J].现代预防医学,2026,53(7):1195-1201.
[5] 庞孟涛,李傅冬,林君芬,等.2016—2019年浙江省手足口病流行特征[J].预防医学,2022,34(3):307-310.
[6] 董晓春,李佳萌,李琳.应用调整Serfling回归模型估计天津市2010—2016年手足口病超额病例数[J].现代预防医学,2018,45(14):2497-2500.
[7] 刘艳,张子喆,王雨达,等.2013—2023年湖州市手足口病流行特征[J].预防医学,2025,37(7):718-721.
[8] 王雅婷,朋文佳,苏华林,等.2011—2018年中国手足口病发病的时空特征及影响因素研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2022,43(10):1562-1567.
[9] Wang W W,Rosenberg M W,Chen H Y,et al.Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of hand,foot,and mouth disease in Hubei,China from 2009 to 2019[J/OL].PLoS One,2023,18(6)[2026-07-24].http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287539.
[10] 马智静,武金娟,吴海岚,等.中国手足口病流行病学特征的回顾性分析[J].中国生物制品学杂志,2025,38(2):155-160.
[11] 刘选,赵建全,杨晓忠,等.2014—2023年丽江市手足口病流行特征与病原学分析[J].应用预防医学,2026,32(2):156-160.
[12] 顾明明,张雪晴,程强.2014—2023年台州市手足口病流行特征及长期变化趋势分析[J].中国公共卫生管理,2026,42(1):128-132.
[13] 华瑞珏,黄瑾,张小娟,等.肠道病毒71型疫苗上市后疫苗保护效果和免疫原性分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(9):1518-1521.
[14] 史曼丽,郭伟杰,任丽君,等.北京市石景山区肠道病毒71型疫苗接种前后手足口病发病趋势与接种相关性分析[J].中国生物制品学杂志,2025,38(3):318-322,329.
[15] Cohen R,Levy C,Rybak A,et al.Immune debt:recrudescence of disease and confirmation of a contested concept[J/OL].Infect Dis Now,2023,53(2)[2026-07-24].http://doi.org/10.1016/j.idnow.2022.12.003.
[16] 李明阳,程晓庆,魏叶,等.2010—2022年江苏省手足口病暴发疫情流行病学特征及其影响因素分析[J].中国公共卫生,2024,40(3):336-341. |
|
|
|
