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| Mortality trend and prediction of chronic respiratory disease in Lianyungang City from 2011 to 2029 |
| ZHONG Wei, LI Weiwei, XIANG Lu, CHAI Lili, DONG Jianmei, MA Zhaojun, QIN Xucheng, ZHANG Weiwei
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| Lianyungang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lianyungang, Jiangsu 222000, China |
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Abstract Objective To analyze the mortality trend of chronic respiratory diseases in Lianyungang City, Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2024, and predict the mortality from 2025 to 2029, so as to provide the evidence for developing forward-looking prevention and control strategies and targeted intervention measures. Methods Chronic respiratory disease death surveillance data in Lianyungang City from 2011 to 2024 were collected through the Jiangsu Chronic Disease Management Information Platform. The crude mortality was calculated and standardized using the data of the Sixth National Population Census in 2010. Average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to analyze the mortality trends of chronic respiratory diseases by gender, region, and age in Lianyungang City from 2011 to 2024. The GM (1,1) grey model was established using the crude mortality of chronic respiratory diseases from 2011 to 2024 to predict the crude mortality of chronic respiratory diseases from 2025 to 2029. Results From 2011 to 2024, the crude mortality and standardized mortality of chronic respiratory diseases in Lianyungang City were 52.20/105 and 36.57/105, respectively. The crude mortality and standardized mortality were 53.14/105 and 43.79/105 in males, respectively, which were higher than 51.17/105 and 30.14/105 in females (both P<0.05). The crude mortality and standardized mortality were 55.62/105 and 39.85/105 in rural areas, respectively, which were higher than 38.11/105 and 24.15/105 in urban areas (both P<0.05). From 2011 to 2024, the standardized mortality of chronic respiratory diseases showed downward trends in the total population, males, females, urban areas, and rural areas (AAPC=-6.956%, -5.175%, -8.659%, -4.290%, and -7.369%, all P<0.05). The crude mortality of chronic respiratory diseases in the total population showed an upward trend with increasing age (P<0.05), reaching a peak of 1 371.20/105 in the ≥80 years group. The top two causes of chronic respiratory disease deaths were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and bronchial asthma, with 31 792 cases and 3 254 cases, accounting for 82.40% and 8.43%, respectively. The GM (1,1) grey model prediction results showed that the crude mortality of chronic respiratory diseases in the total population from 2025 to 2029 would be 37.91/105, 36.32/105, 34.80/105, 33.34/105, and 31.95/105, respectively (average relative error=8.76%). Conclusions From 2011 to 2024, the mortality of chronic respiratory diseases in Lianyungang City showed a downward trend. The risk of death from chronic respiratory diseases was higher in males, rural areas, and the elderly. It is predicted that the mortality of chronic respiratory diseases will decrease year by year from 2025 to 2029.
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Received: 12 November 2025
Revised: 26 January 2026
Published: 11 February 2026
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