|
|
|
| Epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal clustering analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly population in Zhuji City from 2014 to 2024 |
| JIANG Yangying1, LOU Yun1, WANG Fanglu1, CHEN Songhua2
|
1. Zhuji Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhuji, Zhejiang 311800, China;
2. Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal clustering characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) among the elderly population in Zhuji City, Zhejiang Province from 2014 to 2024, so as to provide the evidence for formulating differentiated PTB prevention and control measures for the elderly population. Methods Data of PTB cases aged ≥60 years in Zhuji City from 2014 to 2024 were collected from the Tuberculosis Management Information System of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the distribution characteristics of PTB cases among the elderly population. The average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) were used to analyze the trends in PTB registration rates among the elderly population from 2014 to 2024. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatio-temporal scan analysis were used to analyze the spatio-temporal clustering characteristics of PTB among the elderly population. Results A total of 1 852 PTB cases aged ≥60 years were registered in Zhuji City from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual registration rate of 59.82/105, showing an overall declining trend (AAPC=-3.494%, P<0.05). The registration rate showed a downward trend from 2014 to 2020 (APC=-8.709%, P<0.05), while trend in the registration rate from 2020 to 2024 was not statistically significant (P>0.05). The majority cases were males and farmers, with 1 395 and 1 446 cases respectively, accounting for 75.32% and 78.08%. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that PTB among the elderly population showed spatial clustering distribution in 2015 and 2023, with Moran's I values of 0.249 and 0.323, respectively (both P<0.05). High-high clustering areas were predominantly located in estern and northern parts of the city, while low-low clustering areas concentrated in the southeastern area. Spatio-temporal scan analysis showed that there was one spatio-temporal clustering area of PTB among the elderly population, concentrated central, western, and northern regions of Zhuji City, with the clustering period spanning from April 2014 to September 2019. Conclusions The registration rate of PTB among the elderly population in Zhuji City from 2014 to 2024 showed an overall declining trend, with cases predominantly occurring among males and farmers. The clustered areas were mainly in the central, western, and northern parts of the city. It is recommended to strengthen PTB prevention and control for key populations in clustering areas.
|
|
Received: 01 August 2025
Revised: 17 November 2025
Published: 23 March 2026
|
|
|
|
|
|
[1] 秦楠,成君,王伟炳.老年结核病发病危险因素及主动筛查策略的效果研究进展[J].结核病与肺部健康杂志,2018,7(3):208-212.
[2] 吴倩,张钰,刘魁,等.2016—2020年浙江省肺结核流行特征分析[J].预防医学,2022,34(5):487-491.
[3] 中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会,中华人民共和国教育部.中国学校结核病防控指南[EB/OL].[2025-11-17].http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2020-12/05/content_5567137.htm.
[4] 滕人聪,李涛,李玉红,等.2015—2021年全国65岁及以上老年肺结核患者登记情况分析[J].中国防痨杂志,2023,45(4):367-371.
[5] 卢巧玲,徐来潮,张开漩.绍兴市老年人群肺结核时空聚集性分析[J].预防医学,2024,36(9):760-763.
[6] 诸暨市地方志编纂委员会.诸暨年鉴(2023)[EB/OL].[2025-11-17].https://www.zjrb.cn/ebook/39/index.html.
[7] 彭素标,王玉兰,刘晶磊,等.2013—2017年北京市东城区60岁以上人群肺结核流行病学特征分析[J].医学动物防制,2020,36(3):288-290.
[8] 黄小婵,袁薇,杨敬源,等.2010—2019年贵州省肺结核时空分布特征分析[J].疾病监测,2022,37(4):498-502.
[9] 缪巧玉,刘家松,丁守华.2014—2023年淮安市≥60岁肺结核患者流行病学特征及转归影响因素[J].江苏预防医学,2025,36(2):156-159.
[10] 杨超,王晶,杨朝辉,等.2016—2022年北京市通州区60岁及以上老年人群肺结核流行特征及治疗转归分析[J].中国防痨杂志,2024,46(4):403-410.
[11] 绍兴市统计局. 2024年绍兴统计年鉴[EB/OL].[2025-11-17].https://tjj.sx.gov.cn/art/2025/1/21/art_1229362048_4209642.html.
[12] 杨华,闫姝利,李春霞,等.2016—2023年攀枝花市60岁及以上老年与非老年人群肺结核流行特征对比分析[J/OL].预防医学情报杂志,2025[2025-11-17].https://doi.org/10.19971/j.cnki.1006-4028.240630.
[13] 庞艳,范君,李婷,等.2018—2022年川渝地区肺结核空间分布特征分析[J].疾病监测,2024,39(7):852-856.
[14] 谢加伟,熊华利,蒋惠,等.2011—2021年重庆市荣昌区肺结核空间流行特征分析[J].实用预防医学,2023,30(4):424-428.
[15] 浙江省卫生厅,浙江省财政厅,浙江省发展和改革委员会,等.浙江省耐多药肺结核防治行动计划(2013—2015年)[Z].2013.
[16] 李莹莹,曾玮,程春平,等.2014—2023年湖北省荆州市老年肺结核患者流行趋势及就诊延迟情况分析[J].临床肺科杂志,2025,30(9):1415-1420. |
|
|
|
