基于贝叶斯时空模型的滨州市手足口病影响因素研究

doi:10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2026.02.011

Preventive Medicine

2026, Vol. 38

Issue (2): 161-165 DOI: 10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2026.02.011

Disease Control

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Influencing factors for hand, foot, and mouth disease in Binzhou City based on a Bayesian spatio-temporal model

XU Xinying¹, YAN Wei², SHI Xinglong¹, LÜ Jing¹, YUE Fang¹, QIAO Yingyi¹, LIU Guanxiang³, LI Xiujun¹

1. School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong 250012, China;
2. Binzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Binzhou, Shandong 256600, China;
3. School of Basic Medical Sciences, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong 250012, China

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Abstract Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and influencing factors for hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) incidence in Binzhou City, Shandong Province, so as to provide the evidence for developing HFMD prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on HFMD cases in Binzhou City from 2017 to 2023 were collected through the Infectious Disease Reporting Information System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Meteorological data during the same period were collected from the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The incidence of HFMD was calculated, and the temporal, population, and regional distribution characteristics of HFMD were analyzed descriptively. Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to analyze the influencing factors for HFMD incidence. Results From 2017 to 2023, a total of 17 314 HFMD cases were reported in Binzhou City, with an annual average reported incidence of 62.57/10⁵. The incidence peak was from June to September, and a secondary peak appeared from October to November in some years. The annual average reported incidences were higher in Bincheng District and Yangxin County, which were 107.41/10⁵ and 72.95/10⁵, respectively. There were 10 461 males and 6 853 females, with a male-to-female ratio of 1.53∶1. The age was mainly 1-3 years, with 11 713 cases accounting for 67.65%. Bayesian spatiotemporal model analysis showed that the risk of HFMD incidence had obvious seasonality and regionality. From 2017 to 2019 and in 2021, the peaks occurred in weeks 24-27 and 44-47 each year, with RR values of 1.771-6.747. From 2022 to 2023, it showed a single peak distribution. The RR values were all >1 in Bincheng District, Yangxin County, and Huimin County. Average temperature (RR=1.092, 95%CI: 1.080-1.105) and average relative humidity (RR=1.015, 95%CI: 1.008-1.022) were positively correlated with the risk of HFMD incidence, while average wind speed (RR=0.749, 95%CI: 0.655-0.856) was negatively correlated with the risk of HFMD incidence. Conclusions HFMD in Binzhou City mainly occurs in summer and in central areas. Males and children aged 1-3 years are high-risk populations. The risk of HFMD incidence increases with the increase of average temperature and average relative humidity, and decreases with the increase of average wind speed.

Key words： hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemiological characteristics Bayesian spatio-temporal model influencing factor

Received: 29 August 2025 Revised: 14 January 2026 Published: 11 February 2026

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	XU Xinying
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	YUE Fang
	QIAO Yingyi
	LIU Guanxiang
	LI Xiujun

Cite this article:

XU Xinying,YAN Wei,SHI Xinglong, et al. Influencing factors for hand, foot, and mouth disease in Binzhou City based on a Bayesian spatio-temporal model[J]. Preventive Medicine, 2026, 38(2): 161-165.

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