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| Probability of premature death due to four types of chronic diseases and its impact on life expectancy in Yangpu District from 2010 to 2021 |
| QIN Yongfa, ZHAO Jia, LI Hui, CHEN Jing, HAN Xue
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| Yangpu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Yangpu District Institute of Public Health Supervision), Shanghai 200090, China |
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Abstract Objective To analyze the impact of premature death due to four major chronic diseases on life expectancy in Yangpu District, Shanghai Municipality from 2010 to 2021, so as to provide the evidence for formulating chronic disease prevention and control strategies. Methods Mortality data of registered residents in Yangpu District from 2010 to 2021 were collected through the Death Information Registration and Management System of the Shanghai Municipal Disease Control and Prevention Information Management Platform. The premature death probability of malignant tumors, diabetes, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and chronic respiratory diseases, and life expectancy of residents were calculated using the abridged life table method. Trends in premature death probability for four types of chronic diseases were analyzed using the average annual percent change (AAPC). The impact of premature death probability due to four chronic diseases on life expectancy was assessed by Arriaga's decomposition method. Results The premature death probability due to four major chronic diseases in Yangpu District decreased from 9.88% in 2010 to 9.22% in 2021, showing an overall declining trend (AAPC=-0.540%, P<0.05). Among females, the premature death probability declined from 6.71% to 4.90% (AAPC=-2.715%, P<0.05), whereas no statistically significant trend was observed in males (P>0.05). Life expectancy increased from 82.52 years in 2010 to 84.50 years in 2021, with an overall upward trend (AAPC=0.244%, P<0.05). Life expectancy rose by 1.71 years for males and 2.34 years for females (AAPC=0.197% and 0.303%,both P<0.05). Declines in premature death probability from malignant tumors (AAPC=-0.967%, P< 0.05) and chronic respiratory diseases (AAPC=-3.071%, P<0.05) contributed to gains in life expectancy of 0.30 years and 0.03 years, with contribution rates of 12.18% and 1.29%, respectively. Changes in premature death probability due to diabetes as well as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were not statistically significant (both P>0.05), resulting in reductions in life expectancy of 0.05 years and 0.10 years, with contribution rates of -2.40% and -5.05%, respectively. Notably, an increase in premature death probability due to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases among males (AAPC=1.673%) contributed to a decrease of 0.22 years in male life expectancy, whereas a decrease among females (AAPC=-3.824%) contributed to an increase of 0.03 years in female life expectancy, with contribution rates of -13.03% and 1.14%, respectively. Conclusions From 2010 to 2021, Yangpu District experienced an overall decline in premature death probability due to four major chronic diseases and an increase in life expectancy. Greater attention should be paid to the negative impacts of premature death probability from diabetes as well as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases among males on life expectancy.
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Received: 26 September 2025
Revised: 03 January 2026
Published: 11 February 2026
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