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| Analysis and prediction of incidence and mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City from 2016 to 2027 |
| ZHOU Fan, WANG Xiaohong, CHEN Mengqian, ZHANG Xiaolan, XU Zelin
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| Jinhua Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinhua, Zhejiang 321002, China |
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Abstract Objective To analyze the trends in incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2024, and to predict the incidence and mortality from 2025 to 2027, so as to provide the evidence for improving regional colorectal cancer prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City from 2016 to 2024 were collected through the Zhejiang Chronic Disease Surveillance Information Management System. The crude incidence and crude mortality were calculated, and standardized using the data from the Sixth National Population Census in 2010. Trends in incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer from 2016 to 2024 were analyzed using the average annual percent change (AAPC). A grey Markov model was constructed to predict the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer from 2025 to 2027. Results From 2016 to 2024, the crude incidence and standardized incidence of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City were 46.90/105 and 30.69/105, respectively, showing upward trends (AAPC=4.594% and 2.051%, both P<0.05). The crude mortality and standardized mortality were 17.47/105 and 10.36/105, respectively, and the trends were not statistically significant (both P>0.05). The standardized incidence and standardized mortality of colorectal cancer in males were higher than those in females (35.38/105 vs. 25.68/105, 11.96/105 vs. 8.57/105, both P<0.05). The crude incidence and crude mortality of colorectal cancer in the ≥80 years age group were the highest, at 220.04/105 and 186.86/105, respectively. From 2016 to 2024, the standardized incidence of colorectal cancer in males and females showed upward trends (AAPC=5.069% and 3.965%, both P<0.05), while the trends in standardized mortality were not statistically significant (all P>0.05). The crude incidence in the 70-<80 years age group showed an upward trend (AAPC=1.320%, P<0.05), and the crude mortality in the 40-<50 years age group showed a downward trend (AAPC=-3.756%, P<0.05). Trends in other age groups were not statistically significant (all P>0.05). The prediction results of the grey Markov model showed that the predicted values of crude incidence and crude mortality of colorectal cancer in the whole population would increase from 58.20/105 and 20.04/105 in 2025 to 61.70/105 and 21.26/105 in 2027. Conclusions From 2016 to 2024, the incidence of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City showed upward trends, while the mortality trend was stable. Males and the elderly aged ≥80 years are high-risk populations for colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. It is predicted that both crude incidence and crude mortality will increase from 2025 to 2027.
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Received: 29 August 2025
Revised: 14 November 2025
Published: 26 January 2026
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