Trend in incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and age-period-cohort analysis in Wuxi City from 2005 to 2024
WANG Xinjing1, DING Huan2, ZHANG Qi2, GAO Song2, XU Zhuping2
1. Gusu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Gusu District Institute of Public Health Supervision),Suzhou, Jiangsu 215008, China; 2. Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention (The Affiliated Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Nanjing Medical University), Wuxi, Jiangsu 214023, China
Abstract：Objective To analyze the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis and its age, period and cohort effects in Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2024, so as to provide evidence for improving pulmonary tuberculosis prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Wuxi City from 2005 to 2024 were collected through the Infectious Disease Surveillance System of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis was calculated. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to analyze the trend of pulmonary tuberculosis reported incidence from 2005 to 2024. The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze age, period and cohort effects on reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis. Results A total of 43 242 pulmonary tuberculosis cases were reported in Wuxi City from 2005 to 2024, with an average annual reported incidence of 31.30/105. The reported incidence decreased from 52.53/105 in 2005 to 19.23/105 in 2024, presenting an overall downward trend (AAPC=-5.164%, P<0.05). The reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis rised first and then decreased trend in Wuxi City from 2005 to 2024. It rose from 3.47/105 in the 0-<5 years age group to the peak of 187.74/105 in the 20-<25 years age group, followed by a decline. Using 2010-2014 as the reference group, the risk of pulmonary tuberculosis showed a decreasing trend. The RR value decreased from 1.353 (95%CI: 1.245-1.470) in 2005-2009 to 0.607 (95%CI: 0.541-0.682) in 2020-2024. Using the 1968-1972 birth cohort as the reference group, the pulmonary tuberculosis risk presented a trend of rising first, then decreasing trend. The RR value rose from 2.870 (95%CI: 1.501-5.487) in the 1918-1922 birth cohort to the peak of 3.388 (95%CI: 2.468-4.652) in the 1928-1932 birth cohort, and then declined generally. A slight rebound was observed in the 1963-1967 birth cohort, with an RR of 1.345 (95%CI: 1.165-1.552). The RR values were all less than 1 for birth cohorts born in 1973-1977 or later. Conclusions The overall reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis showed a decreasing trend in Wuxi City from 2005 to 2024, with a high incidence among young and middle-aged population. The risk of pulmonary tuberculosis decreased with the passage of period, and showed a trend of rising first and then decreasing with the passage of birth year.
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