Influenza-associated excess mortality in Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2019
CHENG Wei1, ZHOU Xiaoyan2, YU Zhao2, LIU Shelan2, PAN Jinren2, LING Feng2, CHEN Enfu2
1. Department of HIV/AIDS and STDS Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China; 2. Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China
Abstract：Objective To estimate the influenza-associated excess mortality (IEM) in Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2019, so as to provide insights into estimates of mortality burden due to influenza. Methods The data pertaining to all-cause death and influenza surveillance in Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2019 were retrieved from Zhejiang Provincial Cause of Death Registration System and Influenza Surveillance System to create distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs). The year-, influenza subtype- and age-specific IEM rates were estimated. Results The overall IEM was 18.67/105 (95%CI: 15.32/105-21.97/105) in Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2019, with the lowest in 2016 (14.19/105, 95%CI: 12.00/105-16.37/105) and the highest in 2018 (22.92/105, 95%CI: 19.23/105-26.56/105). The IEM rates of influenza A (H1N1), influenza A (H3N2) and influenza B were 9.32/105 (95%CI: 7.65/105-10.98/105), 5.68/105 (95%CI: 4.24/105-7.11/105), and 3.66/105 (95%CI: 2.13/105-5.18/105). The greatest IEM was seen among residents at ages of 65 years and older (142.91/105, 95%CI: (115.99/105-169.55/105, followed by among individuals at ages of 15 to 64 years (2.74/105, 95%CI: 1.87/105-3.61/105), and the lowest was seen among individuals under 15 years of age (0.41/105, 95%CI: -0.33/105-1.14/105). Conclusions From 2016 to 2019, the highest IEM was seen in Zhejiang Province in 2018, and the elderly residents at ages of 65 years and above presented the greatest IEM, with influenza A (H1N1) as the predominant influenza subtype. Influenza surveillance and vaccination is recommended to be reinforced.
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