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预防医学  2020, Vol. 32 Issue (6): 546-549    DOI: 10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2020.06.002
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部分国家新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行趋势分析
任江萍, 凌锋, 孙继民, 陈恩富
浙江省疾病预防控制中心,浙江 杭州 310051
Epidemic trend of COVID-19 in some high--epidemic countries
REN Jiangping, LING Feng, SUN Jimin, CHEN Enfu
Zhejiang Provinial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China
全文: PDF(645 KB)  
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摘要 目的 分析2020年3月29日前全球都分国家新型冠状病都肺炎(COVID-1- 疫情波行趋势,为我国防控COVID-19境外输人疫情提供依据。方法 收集截至200年3月29日累计报告COVID-19病例数超过10000例的所有国家疫情资料,采用报告发病率、报告病死率、五日移动平均实时再生数(Rt)和日平均增长速度等指标分析交情流行趋势。结果 纳人西班牙、瑞士、意大利、德国、法国、伊朗、美国、英国和中国9个国家进行分析。COVD-19累计报告发病率前三位分别为西班牙(154.63/10万、 瑞士(154.43/10万)和意大利(153.02/10万);报告病死率前三位分别为意大利(10.84%)、 西班牙(7.88%)和伊朗(7.11%)。 截至3月27日,美国、英国、伊朗、西班牙和法国等5个国家的五日移动平均Rt均>1。中国从3月6日起COVID-19病例数出现负增长;3月20日-29 日其他8个国家日平均增长速度在41.58% ~ 18.17%之间,整体趋势有所减缓,其中德国、瑞士和意大利日平均增长速度的下降幅度最大,分别为35.60%、29.76%和 25.56%。结论 截至 2020年3月29日,中国COVID-19疫情基本得到控制;意大利、德国和瑞土的COVID- 19疫情渐趋平稳;美国、英国、伊朗、西班牙和法国的COVID 19疫情呈持续上升趋势。
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任江萍
凌锋
孙继民
陈恩富
关键词 新型冠状病毒肺炎严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型再生数流行趋势    
AbstractObjeetive To learn the epidemic status of COVID-19 in some high-epidemic countries, so as to provide reference for prevention and control of imported COVID-19 in China. Methods We collected the data of all the countries who totally reported over ten thousand cases of COVID-19 by March 29, 2020, and analyzed the epidemic trend by using the incidence rate, the case fatality rate, the five-day moving average time dependent reproduction number (Rt) as well as the average daily increase rate. Results Spain, Switzerland, Italy, Germany, France, lran, UK, USA and China were inchuded in the analysis. Spain( 15.46/100 000), Switzerland(15.44/100 000) and Italy ( 15.30/100 000)ranked top three in the incidence rate of COVID-19. Italy (10.84%), Spain (7.88%) andlan (7.11%) ranked top three in the case atality rate. By March27, the values of five-day moving average Rt in USA, UK, Iran, Spain and France were all more than one. The average daily increase rate in China had changed negative since March 6. The average daily increase rates in the other eight countries ranged from 41.58% to 18.17%, and the trend was slow down from March 20 to 29, among which Germany, Switzerland and Italy had the largest decline of 35.60%, 29.76% and 25.56%, respectively Conclusions By March 29, the epidemie situation of COVID-19 in China was under controls; the situations in ltaly, Germany and Switzerland tended to be stable; while the situations in USA, UK, Iran, Spain and France maintained an upward tmend.
Key wordscornavirus disease 2019    severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2    reproduction number    epidemic trend
收稿日期: 2020-04-07      出版日期: 2020-06-22
ZTFLH:  R181.3  
通信作者: 陈恩富,E-mail: enfchen@cdc.zj.cn   
作者简介: 任江萍,硕士,主管医师,主要从事急性传染病预防和控制工作
引用本文:   
任江萍, 凌锋, 孙继民, 陈恩富. 部分国家新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行趋势分析[J]. 预防医学, 2020, 32(6): 546-549.
REN Jiangping, LING Feng, SUN Jimin, CHEN Enfu. Epidemic trend of COVID-19 in some high--epidemic countries. Preventive Medicine, 2020, 32(6): 546-549.
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http://www.zjyfyxzz.com/CN/10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2020.06.002      或      http://www.zjyfyxzz.com/CN/Y2020/V32/I6/546
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