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预防医学  2018, Vol. 30 Issue (6): 541-544    DOI: 10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2018.06.001
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人感染H7N9禽流感疫情早期预警风险指数研究
何凡,陈恩富,王笑笑,程伟,林君芬
浙江省疾病预防控制中心,浙江 杭州 310051
Risk index and early-warning model of H7N9 human infections
HE Fan,CHEN En-fu,WANG Xiao-xiao,CHENG Wei,LIN Jun-fen
Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310051,China
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摘要 目的 构建人感染H7N9禽流感疫情早期预警风险指数。方法 利用2013年4月—2017年3月浙江省各地以月为单位的涉禽外环境监测资料,包括场所阳性率和标本阳性率,开展主成分分析,得到风险指数(X);以人感染H7N9禽流感病例为应变量,采用分类回归树法构建风险指数对于发病数的预警模型。结果 标本阳性率和场所阳性率在风险指数中的权重分别为0.054 5和0.023 0,建立的人感染H7N9禽流感病例分类回归树模型将风险指数分成4等级,分别为X≤0.140、0.1403.285。以第一风险指数等级为参照,第二、三、四风险指数等级与之比较的风险比依次为7.4、21.7和29.9。利用建立的分类回归树模型预测的正确率为86.1%,灵敏度为80.8%,特异度为87.3%,一致性检验Kappa值为0.592。结论 该风险指数可用于人感染H7N9禽流感疫情的早期预警。
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何凡
陈恩富
王笑笑
程伟
林君芬
关键词 人感染H7N9禽流感风险指数预警模型    
AbstractObjective To establish the risk index of early-warning on the human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. Methods The risk index(X)was calculated by using Principal Component Analysis based on the surveillance results (including the positive rates of environmental specimens and premises)during the period from April 2013 to March 2017 in Zhejiang Province. Then,the method of Classification and Regression Trees was used to establish the early-warning model for forewarning the epidemic situation of H7N9 human infections. Results The weights of two rates (the positive rates of specimens and premises)used to establish the risk index were 0.054 5 and 0.023 0 respectively. In the model of Classification and Regression Trees,risk index was divided into 4 grades:X≤0.140,0.1403.285. Compared to the 1st grade,the risk ratios of the 2nd,3rd and 4th grades were 7.4,21.7 and 29.9 respectively. The accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of prediction were 86.1%,80.8% and 87.3%respectively,and the Kappa value was 0.592. Conclusion The established risk index can be used to forewarn the H7N9 human infections,which is helpful for emergency preparedness and disease control.
Key wordsH7N9 human infections    Risk index    Early-warning model
     出版日期: 2018-06-04
ZTFLH:  R511.7  
基金资助:浙江省医药卫生科技平台计划(2015ZDA009)
通信作者: 林君芬,E-mail:jflin@cdc.zj.cn   
作者简介: 何凡,硕士,副主任医师,主要从事公共卫生监测与疾病控制工作
引用本文:   
何凡,陈恩富,王笑笑,程伟,林君芬. 人感染H7N9禽流感疫情早期预警风险指数研究[J]. 预防医学, 2018, 30(6): 541-544.
HE Fan,CHEN En-fu,WANG Xiao-xiao,CHENG Wei,LIN Jun-fen. Risk index and early-warning model of H7N9 human infections. Preventive Medicine, 2018, 30(6): 541-544.
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http://www.zjyfyxzz.com/CN/10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2018.06.001      或      http://www.zjyfyxzz.com/CN/Y2018/V30/I6/541
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