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| Epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal clustering analysis of mumps in Xuzhou City from 2015 to 2025 |
| SUN Yu, LIU Jiali, MIAO Yuyang, CAO Lin, HE Meiqi, ZHOU Qiang
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| Xuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 212000, China |
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Abstract Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering features of mumps in Xuzhou City, Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2025, so as to provide the evidence for formulating regional mumps prevention and control strategies. Methods Data of mumps reported cases from 2015 to 2025 were collected through the Surveillance System of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Seasonal index method was adopted to analyze seasonal distribution of mumps incidence. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze population, temporal and regional distribution characteristics. Average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) were applied to explore the trend of mumps incidence. Spatiotemporal scan statistics were performed to detect spatiotemporal clusters of mumps. Results A total of 12 237 mumps cases were reported in Xuzhou from 2015 to 2025, with an average annual reported incidence of 12.58/105. The reported incidence increased from 2015 to 2019 (APC=78.326%, P<0.05) and decreased from 2019 to 2025 (APC=-29.339%, P<0.05). No statistically significant trend was observed for the whole study period (AAPC=2.328%, P>0.05). The average annual reported incidence among males was 15.49/105, higher than 9.63/105 in females (P<0.05). Cases were predominantly aged 5-<10 years old, accounting for 39.47% (4 830 cases); students accounted for 74.05% (9 062 cases). The seasonal indexes were greater than 100% in April to June and December, with values of 116.88%, 163.65%, 159.07% and 109.83%, respectively. Xinyi City and Suining County had relatively higher average annual reported incidence, which were 50.82/105 and 22.89/105, respectively. Spatiotemporal scan analysis identified Class I clusters covering 17 towns (streets) in Xinyi City, with the clustering period from October 2018 to January 2020 (P<0.05). Conclusions The reported incidence of mumps in Xuzhou City presented an overall trend of rising first and then declining from 2015 to 2025. Mumps peaked in late winter and early spring. Males, children aged 5-<10 years and students were high-risk populations, and Xinyi City was a high-risk area.
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Received: 04 February 2026
Revised: 30 June 2026
Published: 27 July 2026
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